perm filename BELL.XGP[W77,JMC] blob
sn#273003 filedate 1977-03-27 generic text, type T, neo UTF8
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␈↓ ↓H␈↓Comments␈α↔on␈α↔"The␈α↔Scoial␈α↔Framework␈α↔of␈α↔the␈α↔Information␈α↔Society:␈α↔The␈α↔Coming␈α↔Age␈α↔of
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Communication and Control" - by Daniel Bell
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_To␈α∞an␈α∞unreconstructed␈α
technologist,␈α∞Professor␈α∞Bell's␈α
article␈α∞raises␈α∞more␈α
issues␈α∞than␈α∞I␈α
have
␈↓ ↓H␈↓time for or the editors will have space for. I shall consider two major ones.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_First␈α
I␈αwould␈α
like␈α
to␈αstate␈α
the␈αcase␈α
for␈α
the␈αold-fashioned␈α
view␈α
that␈αscience␈α
and␈αinvention␈α
are
␈↓ ↓H␈↓progress␈αin␈αthemselves.␈α Namely,␈αthey␈αgive␈αindividuals,␈αgroups,␈αand␈αsociety␈αas␈αa␈αwhole␈αmore␈αtools
␈↓ ↓H␈↓for␈αdealing␈αwith␈αwhatever␈αproblems␈αthey␈αimagine␈αthemselves␈αto␈αhave.␈α Since␈αall␈αthe␈αold␈αways␈αare
␈↓ ↓H␈↓still␈α∞potentially␈α
available,␈α∞a␈α
well␈α∞organized␈α
society␈α∞should␈α
always␈α∞achieve␈α
a␈α∞result␈α
no␈α∞worse␈α
than
␈↓ ↓H␈↓could␈α∃be␈α∃achieved␈α∃without␈α∃them.␈α∃ However,␈α∃when␈α∃some␈α∃people␈α∃take␈α∃advantage␈α∃of␈α⊗a␈α∃new
␈↓ ↓H␈↓opportunity,␈αany␈αlosers␈αand␈αeven␈αsmall␈αwinners␈αwill␈αcomplain.␈α To␈αwhatever␈αextent␈αthe␈α
complaints
␈↓ ↓H␈↓are␈α
justified,␈α
the␈α
fault␈α
lies␈αwith␈α
the␈α
politicians,␈α
the␈α
dictators,␈αthe␈α
WASPs␈α
or␈α
any␈α
other␈αscapegoat
␈↓ ↓H␈↓you␈α
choose.␈α∞ They␈α
might␈α∞equally␈α
well␈α
take␈α∞unfair␈α
advantage␈α∞of␈α
a␈α∞non-technological␈α
opportunity
␈↓ ↓H␈↓like the discovery of America.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_It␈α⊂is␈α⊂argued␈α⊂that␈α⊂technologies␈α⊂have␈α⊂momentum,␈α⊂and␈α⊂people␈α⊂won't␈α⊂stop␈α⊂using␈α⊂them␈α⊂even
␈↓ ↓H␈↓when␈αthey␈αare␈αbad,␈αbut␈αsuch␈αcomplaints,␈αto␈αthe␈αextent␈αthat␈αthey␈αare␈αvalid,␈αshould␈αbe␈αaddressed␈αto
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the organization of society.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Actually␈α
I␈α
would␈α
argue␈αthat␈α
new␈α
technology␈α
is␈αnot␈α
today␈α
the␈α
main␈αcause␈α
of␈α
change␈α
in␈αour
␈↓ ↓H␈↓society.␈α Present␈αsocial␈αand␈αpolitical␈αchanges␈αare␈αmainly␈αeconomic␈αand␈αsocial␈αreverberations␈αof␈αthe
␈↓ ↓H␈↓technological␈αchanges␈αof␈αthe␈αnineteenth␈αcentury.␈α The␈αpace␈αof␈αtechnological␈αchange␈αaffecting␈αdaily
␈↓ ↓H␈↓life␈α∪has␈α∪slowed,␈α∪because␈α∪the␈α∀mine␈α∪of␈α∪easy␈α∪mechanical␈α∪innovation␈α∪cost-effective␈α∀at␈α∪moderate
␈↓ ↓H␈↓incomes␈αwas␈αworked␈α
out␈αearly␈αin␈α
this␈αcentury.␈α Think␈α
how␈αfew␈αpostwar␈α
inventions␈αwe␈αrely␈α
on␈αin
␈↓ ↓H␈↓our␈αdaily␈αlives␈αcompared␈αto␈α
our␈αreliance␈αon␈αthose␈αthat␈α
preceded␈α1920.␈α If␈αno␈αmore␈αinventions␈α
were
␈↓ ↓H␈↓made,␈α
our␈α
lives␈αwould␈α
remain␈α
exciting␈α
for␈αat␈α
least␈α
another␈α
hundred␈αyears␈α
by␈α
which␈α
time␈αthe␈α
world
␈↓ ↓H␈↓would␈αreach␈αa␈αuniformly␈αhigh␈αbut␈αdull␈α
standard␈αof␈αliving.␈α (By␈αthat␈αtime␈αthe␈αcommunist␈α
countries
␈↓ ↓H␈↓will␈αhave␈αsolved␈αthe␈αproblem␈αof␈αorderly␈αtransfer␈αof␈αpower␈αby␈αthe␈αtime-tested␈αmethod␈αof␈αbecoming
␈↓ ↓H␈↓monarchies,␈α
and␈α
the␈αhereditary␈α
general␈α
secretaries␈αwill␈α
begin␈α
granting␈αreal␈α
but␈α
limited␈α
powers␈αto
␈↓ ↓H␈↓their parliaments).
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Second,␈α⊃it␈α⊃isn't␈α⊃made␈α⊃clear␈α⊃which␈α∩social␈α⊃projections␈α⊃of␈α⊃the␈α⊃future␈α⊃are␈α⊃considered␈α∩to␈α⊃be
␈↓ ↓H␈↓founded␈α⊂on␈α⊂economic␈α⊂and␈α⊂sociological␈α⊂reasoning␈α⊂and␈α⊂which␈α⊂depend␈α⊂on␈α⊂specific␈α⊃projections␈α⊂of
␈↓ ↓H␈↓likely␈αtechnology.␈α Some␈αof␈αthe␈αconclusions␈αseem␈αto␈αme␈αto␈αbe␈αfounded␈αon␈αtechnological␈αprojections
␈↓ ↓H␈↓which, while plausible, are not necessarily the way technology will lead us:
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Thus␈αa␈αmajor␈αprojection␈αis␈αthat␈αthe␈αrelative␈αimportance␈αof␈αinformation␈αhandling␈αindustries
␈↓ ↓H␈↓relative␈αto␈αmanufacturing␈αwill␈αcontinue␈αto␈αincrease.␈α It␈αseems␈αto␈αme␈αthat␈αthis␈αcould␈αbe␈αaffected␈αby
␈↓ ↓H␈↓two␈α⊃kinds␈α⊂of␈α⊃development.␈α⊂ First,␈α⊃there␈α⊂could␈α⊃be␈α⊂a␈α⊃new␈α⊂expensive␈α⊃desirable␈α⊃invention.␈α⊂ Thus
␈↓ ↓H␈↓suppose␈αa␈αreliable␈αquiet␈αpersonal␈αflying␈α
machine␈αthat␈αcould␈αland␈αanywhere␈αwere␈αinvented,␈α
and␈αit
␈↓ ↓H␈↓cost␈α$75,000.␈α Suppose␈αfurther␈αthat␈αit␈αwas␈αautomatic␈αso␈αthat␈αchildren␈αand␈αother␈αnon-drivers␈αcould
␈↓ ↓H␈↓use␈αit,␈αand␈αit␈αwas␈αfast␈αenough␈αto␈αpermit␈α
commuting␈αfrom␈α250␈αmiles.␈α It␈αcould␈αvery␈αquickly␈αcome␈α
to
␈↓ ↓H␈↓dominate␈α∞the␈α∞economy,␈α∞because␈α∞peopple␈α∞would␈α∞strive␈α∞to␈α∞afford␈α∞it,␈α∞and␈α∞if␈α∞the␈α∞technological␈α∞facts
␈↓ ↓H␈↓were to dictate such a price, millions would be employed producing them.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Moreover,␈αthe␈αgrowth␈αof␈αthe␈α"knowledge"␈αindustry␈αcould␈αbe␈αreversed␈αby␈αnew␈αdiscoveries␈αin
␈↓ ↓H␈↓automating␈α⊗paper␈α⊗work.␈α⊗ Once␈α⊗firms␈α⊗and␈α⊗individuals␈α⊗keep␈α⊗all␈α⊗records␈α⊗in␈α⊗computers␈α⊗and
␈↓ ↓H␈↓communicate␈α→electronically,␈α→there␈α→will␈α→be␈α→an␈α→enormous␈α→payoff␈α→in␈α→making␈α→interfirm␈α→and
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ 91
␈↓ ↓H␈↓interpersonal␈α∪transactions␈α∪automatically.␈α∪ The␈α∪public␈α∩will␈α∪even␈α∪demand␈α∪that␈α∪the␈α∩government
␈↓ ↓H␈↓bureaucracy stop asking citizens questions to which it already has the answer.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_On␈αthe␈αother␈αhand,␈αit␈αcould␈αbe␈αargued␈αthat␈αthe␈αgrowth␈αof␈α"knowledge␈αindustries",␈αespecially
␈↓ ↓H␈↓bureaucracy,␈α
is␈α
not␈α
at␈α
all␈α
a␈α
technological␈α
phenomenon␈α
but␈α
a␈α
sociological␈α
one.␈α
Perhaps␈αmiddle␈α
class
␈↓ ↓H␈↓young␈α∞people␈α∞prefer␈α∞information␈α∂processing␈α∞jobs,␈α∞squeeze␈α∞into␈α∂them,␈α∞and␈α∞work␈α∞to␈α∂expand␈α∞their
␈↓ ↓H␈↓functions.␈α
The␈α
demand␈α
for␈α
"relevant"␈α
work␈α
of␈α
the␈αsixties␈α
can␈α
be␈α
regarded␈α
as␈α
a␈α
demand␈α
for␈αthe
␈↓ ↓H␈↓expansion␈αof␈αbureaucracy.␈α At␈αleast␈αthe␈αjob␈αof␈αa␈αmaker␈αand␈αenforcer␈αof␈αregulations␈αseems␈αto␈αcome
␈↓ ↓H␈↓closer␈α
to␈αcriteria␈α
for␈α"relevant␈α
work"␈αthan␈α
does␈αany␈α
other␈αjob␈α
not␈αrequiring␈α
specialized␈αtraining.␈α
It
␈↓ ↓H␈↓can be argued that desire to be a lawyer had a major effect in expanding the area of lawsuits.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Anyway,␈α⊃I␈α∩would␈α⊃like␈α⊃to␈α∩know␈α⊃Professor␈α⊃Bell's␈α∩opinion␈α⊃on␈α⊃whether␈α∩the␈α⊃post-industrial
␈↓ ↓H␈↓society is a technological or a sociological necessity.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_In␈α
the␈αdescription␈α
of␈α
present␈αsociety,␈α
the␈αimpression␈α
of␈α
crisis␈αseems␈α
somewhat␈αoverdrawn.␈α
In
␈↓ ↓H␈↓particular,␈αI␈α
don't␈αbelieve␈αin␈α
information␈αoverload.␈α People␈α
are␈αas␈αgood␈α
as␈αever␈αat␈α
ignoring␈αwhat
␈↓ ↓H␈↓doesn't affect their immediate decisions.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Finally,␈αI␈αthink␈αthe␈αword␈α␈↓↓compunication␈↓␈αis␈αugly.␈α Moreover,␈αit␈αpresumes␈αthat␈αcommunication
␈↓ ↓H␈↓and␈α⊃computation␈α⊃are␈α⊂inextricably␈α⊃mixed.␈α⊃ Because␈α⊃communication␈α⊂is␈α⊃a␈α⊃natural␈α⊃monopoly␈α⊂and
␈↓ ↓H␈↓communication is not, mixing them should be avoided.